When Will The Next Gen Consoles Come?

[inferno1321]

The last thread was getting off topic. You can catch up here:

http://www.ps3center.net/forums/showthread.php?t=3611&page=2


When do you think they will be announced/released?

[EIN]

Thx for starting the new thread inferno

Your last point about gaming giants sticking to cut and paste formulae games is all too likely to be true, inferno. Gaming is an industry, and whether or not the devs get to go ahead and do something new and crazy will always depend on whether the CFO thinks there will be a return in profits.

Personally, I think 2011... but it may be later now. Sony incurred a $1.1 BILLION dollar loss last year, and the economic situation doesnt seem to be doing much better, so they are probably seriously thinking over their future developments. Nintendo is sitting pretty, but theres no telling where that might go in 2 years with Japan's economy, and don't get me started on Microsoft. Apple's rumored gaming platform may well lose its impetus and consumer confidence when Steve Jobs is no longer with us (may he hopefully recover btw), so i don't like Apple's chances either.

My current guess is that Sony will go ahead and announce their console around 2011-2012, Microsoft will probably "leak" info/rumor about a console a year or so earlier (~ late 2010, early 2011), and Nintendo can just sit back and laugh do whatever the **** they want. Apple may make some inroads by announcing their intent in gaming and then like 3 months later it hits shelves... Crazy Apple Execs....

http://www.ps3center.net/news/2136/sony-suffers-11-billion-loss/
Nick's article on Sony's loss

[Sauberbmw]

Not only that but a majority of people don't have a next gen console and the companies still have yet to reap the benefits of their consoles.(except Nintendo) to release a system say in 2010 or 2011 would not only be devastating but that no one will develop games for it. the developers are just getting used to the next gen consoles and spent millions updating their studios.

maybe by 2014 or 2015 we will see a next console but in the meantime, its probably in R&D stage

[Dustin S.]

The studio thing is a very good point in my opinion. Look at how many studios closed in the past year alone, now look at how many studios are struggling (Even EA is) and then look at how many studios were screwed the second this generation started because they couldn't keep up. Another point to look at is how Sony not only says they have yet to use the full power of PS3 but game studios are also admiting they have no clue how to develope for it like they do for 360.

All this leads me to one point, its not so much Sony and MS that need to be prepared for change, they need to make sure the change is for the good of the entire industry. IS your new system really that advanced that it will make games so much better that its worth it, or are we basically jumping from PS2 to Wii? The thing is these studios cannot handle another change at all right now with the way the economy is, yes they have stated that video games are the industry that cannot be hurt by it but even movies are taking a toll so there is no denying it. When we do change to another generation we are going to lose more studios and more games, we need to make that number as small as possible and make sure the change is worth it. Right now i dont see anything more than the 3D technology from Sony being worth while, I dont think these companies can handle it at all (we could even see EA fall), and lastly the current systems still have tons of untapped power (excluding the wii).

Now on the Apple subject (bare with me on trying not to move off topic lol) i honestly hope they do NOT jump in the gaming business unless its purely just a game studio. The reason i say this is because we dont really need them, they have yet to show anything that is differnt from xbox or Playstation why do we need them? I also fear that they will take a similar rout as Nintendo and head towards casual gamers which in the end will hurt the industry, we need quality control. We need more actual games than we do wii games, no im not saying everything on wii is casual but go down the aisle of each system you cannot possibly deny thats what nintendo is targeting. Yes i know the argument "but that introduces people" well how many wii's have sold and how many of those people moved on the xbox? Not that good of odds really. Yet people that buy a PS3 are jealous of titles on Xbox and some may buy the xbox, they help each other, they help further each others technology, and finally they help make each others games better. Halo 4 could look better than killzone 2....Gears improved Resistance....Mario made us laugh for a few days then we got tired.

My point here is we need better quality control before the video game industry turns into the movie industry. Video games are known for unique ideas but we are seeing alot of sequals now, we are not seeing much innovation on genre's and we are begining to get the same basic concept in every game we play. We need to stop and if more companies want to jump in, by all means just help the current consoles survive or introduce something that helps everyone as a whole.

Another issue with Apple is the game industry is part of economics, forgot the name of the type of industry, but you have your 3 namebrands. Those namebrands control everything, if they dont want to accept you then you better be good to stay around.

All this is agreed on by Microsoft obviously in a recent article i wrote. He stated that current tech has yet to be used correctly and there really isnt any major improvement right now to force a new generation. He also states that you need a strong economy to get going. If you ask me though Sony will "hint" at a PS4 in 2011, announce one in 2012, and release a demostration in 2013 with possible release later that year. (of course its gotta follow the playstation tradition of getting delayed 4 times lol) MS in my beliefs will be earlier, when Sony announces PS4 i think MS will be pretty much set on releasing the next Xbox. That marketing scheme worked well for them this time, so they are gonna try again. As for Nintendo we will probably just see Wii 2.0 similar to how the DS is re released all the time, i dont really see them bothering with actual advancments and exspensive stuff anymore. They are known for casual, when that fails you will probably see Nintendo all together start sliding.

[EIN]

Good lord where does Michal find you people?! The staff on this site are amazingly astute and well-spoken.

Sauberbmw and Dustin are correct; the PS3 engine has yet to be fully realized yet, and I think this will lead the market to favor Sony in the long run, as Microsoft will continually be playing technological catchup (barring some unforeseen uber breakthrough on their part). But Sony really has to get going on easier to use dev kits... if studio programmers have no clue wtf is going on, how will they proceed to give us quality games? I think it is highly likely next gen (lol can't believe we're using that term already) announcements will be around 2011 (give or take a year), only when developpers have begun to fully flesh out the tech. I can see devs switching sides once a PS3 groundbreaker blows Xbox's aging processors out of the water; we just need that hit to come soon.

I fully agree with Dustin on everything except the Apple bit. I vaguely remember Apple announcing their intent to enter the gaming industry last year or the one before, and you have to admit they are in a great position to do so. Everyone owns an iPod, Apple's name is synonymous with user-friendliness, Macs are everyday objects, and the support base is ENORMOUS. Were they not hellbent on pushing iLife on everybody in the world, they'd quickly find a niche market in gaming. And thats what they'd be good at, just like Nintendo. Casual gamers are a NICHE market.

Dustin's sentiments about Nintendo and the growing prevalence of casual gaming is a serious concern to those of us who look for more in a game than cheap thrills and quick larfs. But you have to realize that Nintendo has shown a market conscious shift TOWARDS casual gaming, and that it is the new market reality. Xbox and Playstation are indeed complimentary in that they make each other strive for excellence as rivals and competitors, but they caused something atrocious to happen. With their console wars and constant, obsessive attention to detail and fine tuning, they managed to alienate people just entering the market. They overfocused on gamers and forgot that other people like to play games too. Enter the Wii, and the phenemenon that was last year and the year before. Casual gaming, and its inherent crappy quality is a given because this is a new niche industry; standards are still being set. You can't expect a platform to come out with jawdropping releases all the time, although you might wish it to be so. And Nintendo has no incentive to stop them, because they're getting paid hand over fist to allow these thirdparty software devs to make games. Apple jumping into the casual gaming market will do exactly what xbox and playstation did for each; set a rival and standards of quality. I'd welcome a casual Apple platform if it means i can find better games on my lonely Wii...

But its not likely to happen... Steve Jobs stepped down for something like 6 months... their COO is taking over till then...
http://gear.ign.com/articles/945/945019p1.html

[Joshua]

I agree with all the various points made in this thread, so no need to be redundant, but I just wanted to quote a recent article:


"When you look at consumers, they are going to be more value-conscious. We want to make sure that as the economy does start to recover, that we're positioned well."

"So persuading people to change is not an easy thing to do. Bach also explained that power and pretty looking graphics are no longer good enough, and with todays consoles its going to be hard to top that to begin with. With this in mind, for any company to create a whole new generation would take a lot more work than what is needed when you have 3 very well built systems on the market."


...and I just wanted to add that if you look back through the last 20 years in gaming everything that's being said just makes sense, and if you want to broaden that a bit more you can extend that look to technology in general. Right now we're at a point that technology and the economy are in a very fragile relationship. To simply jump into the next gen just for the sake of trying to up the ante just isn't financially responsible right now or even in the next couple of years. I'm comfortable with 2013 being the date to watch. When I speak of technology catching up, just think of how consoles have basically made your local mall arcade obsolete. Look at how superior home entertainment systems are threatening theaters. Well, that and the fact that most of the movies that are made these days are crap, but you get what I mean. Why go out and pay $10+ a head when you can stay home and watch HD movies with great surround sound.

[inferno1321]

Wow. You guys wrote some good stuff.

I have two points to make. One about the Wii and one about Apple.

The Wii has been experiencing what I mentioned earlier pretty much all year. It is such an easy console for developers to make quick crappy cash-ins that it has been flooded with them. I can only think of three good games that came out last year for the Wii: Super Smash Brothers Brawl, Mario Kart, and No More Heroes. While the motion controls make the console much more susceptible to gimmicks, hopefully we won't see this anytime soon on the "real" gaming consoles.

The other topic has to do with Apple entering the gaming market. I can say with confidence that Apple WILL NOT release a gaming console anytime in the near future. Generally releasing a new console comes with big losses in the beginning. With the economic crisis that we are in now it would make very little sense for even Apple to launch a gaming console. They already tried and failed once, for those of you that don't know about the Apple Pippin (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Pippin). That said, it doesn't mean they are not going to move into the gaming market. Already they are heavily pushing the iPod Touch as a gaming device, and for good reason. There are a lot of very good games out there for it, and like any system, some very bad ones. The most I think Apple would do would be to incorporate some gaming features into the rather bland Apple TV.

[EIN]

http://www.ps3center.net/news/2250/first-details-of-ps4-emerge/

So the cat is out of the bag.... or is it?
Read up the translation and you'll find a number of disconcerting facts...
http://gamingfront.net/story-156-.html

We'll see how "official" this really is

[Joshua]

I saw that and then I read this:

http://www.videogaming247.com/2009/01/30/playstation-4-hasnt-even-been-mentioned-says-reeves/

[EIN]

lol contraversy abounds now... and that thing is dated at jan 30th...
WHO TO BELIEVE?!!?

But, as previously mentioned, if Sony really WAS working on another PS, they would keep hush hush about it till marketing came online, and any leaks discovered would have to be discredited and denied till the appropriate time came along...

[Joshua]

yeah, I call BS on anything until Sony makes an official announcement. There's already enough hype on the interwebs for the next 20 lifetimes. In my head I know it's smart to at least be doing some R&D in the background, in regards to the future. However, as a gamer I couldn't help but to be a bit annoyed knowing it was true that they were already using precious resources to cook up a PS4 when it's quite clear that they have their work cut out for them when it comes to the PS3. I mean I know Sony is a mega corporation, but they're still losing loads of money, so it doesn't seem wise to be utilizing precious resources on the future when the present is not exactly a sure thing yet, but I digress. This is all speculation until I hear otherwise.