By the end of calendar 2010, all three current generation consoles will feature some sort of gesture-based control mechanism - Microsoft with Project Natal, Sony with their motion wands(codenamed Arc), and Nintendo with the Wiimote. All three platform holders are taking different approaches with their respective motion controllers, and all three solutions will resonate differently with the consumers.
With the Wiimote already firmly entrenched in the mind of the consumer as the de facto motion controller, focus has shifted to Project Natal and Sony's motion wands. Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter has weighed in on the two newcomers, predicting that Microsoft's Project Natal will greatly outsell Sony's Arc controller in their first year on the market.
"I think that the Sony motion controller will have some problems gaining traction, since it is not an “in the box” solution," Pachter told us in an exclusive interview. "That will probably limit adoption to one or two million at the outset.”
This is in stark contrast to Project Natal, which he predicts will do upwards of five to ten times that number.
“A year or so after launch, there will be 10 million [Project Natal units] out there, which will probably attract more third party support."
Both Project Natal and Sony's Arc controller are set to make a big splash at the upcoming E3 convention.